Key takeaways
- Elon Musk says Cybertruck orders “far exceed” production and Tesla “will have to return deposits for a lot of people” before the line shuts down in about 8 months.
- In Q3, Tesla sold about 4,323 Cybertrucks in the US, down 28% from a year earlier, on a line built for more than 125,000 a year.
- My view: two days ago I wrote that we would hear “soon it won’t be available for everyone.” Here it is. This isn’t demand. It’s a show.
On November 9, Elon Musk wrote on X that “the Cybertruck order rate far exceeds our production rate” and that Tesla “will have to return deposits for a lot of people” before the line shuts down in about 8 months. He added that the decision is not about the truck being unprofitable, “as has been misreported by legacy media.”
In this article: I wrote it on Saturday. On Monday, it arrived · So many orders that you’re closing the factory? · The numbers don’t lie. Musk does · “Legacy media” lies, and the truck is profitable? · First the price goes up, then “sorry, sold out” · “There will never be another vehicle like it” · What it means for you · FAQ
I wrote it on Saturday. On Monday, it arrived
On November 7, when Tesla announced the end of the Cybertruck and raised its price the same day, I wrote this: “Then you only hear from everywhere: ‘soon it won’t be available for everyone.’ I’m waiting for it.” I waited exactly two days. On Sunday, Musk shared a fan’s advice, “Get it while you can.” On Monday, he says there are so many orders that Tesla has to send money back. I’m not a prophet. Musk is just that predictable.
So many orders that you’re closing the factory?
Let’s think about it like normal people. You have a product. People are lining up. Orders are bigger than production. What does every normal company do? It builds more. It keeps the line running. It makes money. And what does Tesla do? It shuts the line down. If a bakery had a line around the block, would the owner close it to sell something else? Only if the line isn’t real.
The numbers don’t lie. Musk does
In Q3, Tesla sold about 4,323 Cybertrucks in the US. That’s 28% less than a year earlier. The line in Texas was built for more than 125,000 trucks a year, and it runs at around a quarter of that. And now Musk “adds a shift” to finish the orders? You don’t need an extra shift on a line that’s three quarters empty. In my opinion, this is not a production problem. It’s a marketing problem dressed up as success.
“Legacy media” lies, and the truck is profitable?
Musk says the Cybertruck is not unprofitable and the media got it wrong. Fine. Then show it. Tesla doesn’t publish the Cybertruck’s margin anywhere. It reports one number for all cars together, so nobody can check. It’s always the same: when the numbers are bad, he attacks journalists. When a court rules against him, as in the Solar Roof case, he goes silent. Big mouth, no papers.
First the price goes up, then “sorry, sold out”
Look at the order of events. Friday: the end of production and a price increase, so the cheapest truck now costs $92,490, 32% more than in August. Sunday: “Get it while you can.” Monday: “too many orders, we’ll refund deposits.” That’s the oldest trick from any market: raise the price, then tell people they might not get it. Panic sells. And don’t forget, Tesla made the $250 order fee non-refundable back in 2019. Musk didn’t say a word about whether that money comes back.
“There will never be another vehicle like it”
That’s what Musk wrote. And I agree, but not the way he means. There will never be another truck promised for $39,900 that ends up at $92,490, cancelled in Australia after seven years of deposits, and killed while its owner tells us everyone wants it. My guess: in a few months we’ll hear that, thanks to “incredible demand,” Tesla extends production for a while. Another show, another headline. Remember my words.
What it means for you
If you have an order, don’t let “get it while you can” push you. A discontinued $92,490 truck with its own body and its own parts isn’t a collector’s item. It’s a risk. Ask Tesla in writing how long it guarantees parts and service. And if Tesla returns your deposit, take it and be happy. That’s the best deal you’ll get from this story.
Also on Evolt News: Someone Offers to Build the Cybertruck for Tesla. Now Musk Has No Excuse Left · Tesla China Sales Fall 66% to 8,817 Cars. The “10% Growth” Is Just Exports · Tesla Kills the Cybertruck and Raises Its Price · Tesla Cancels Cybertruck in Australia After 7 Years of Deposits · Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings: A Factory of Promises
Featured image: A1C6 / Wikimedia Commons (CC0).
This article is opinion.
Tesla Cybertruck deposit refunds: FAQ
Is Tesla refunding Cybertruck deposits?
Musk says Tesla “will have to return deposits for a lot of people” because orders exceed what it can build before the line shuts down in about 8 months.
When does Cybertruck production end?
Around mid-2027, according to Musk, to free resources for the Cybercab.
How many Cybertrucks does Tesla sell?
Cox Automotive estimates 4,323 US sales in Q3 2026, down 28% year over year. Kelley Blue Book counted 20,237 in 2025, down 48%.
Is the Cybertruck profitable?
Musk says it is, but Tesla doesn’t report the Cybertruck’s margin separately.
How much does a Cybertruck cost now?
The Premium AWD costs $92,490 and the Cyberbeast $102,490 after the November price increase.
Will the $250 order fee be refunded?
Musk didn’t say. Tesla made the fee non-refundable in 2019.
Sources: Elon Musk on X, Reuters, Cox Automotive, Kelley Blue Book, EVXL.
Our Take
A company with more orders than it can build doesn’t close the line. Tesla raised the price, shouted “get it while you can,” and now sells the end of the Cybertruck as proof of demand.
The numbers say 4,323 trucks in a quarter on a line built for 125,000 a year. Watch the numbers, not the posts on X.
