Key takeaways
- TrendForce expects Apple to take 29.8% of the foldable phone market in 2027, up from 24.8% in 2026, close behind Samsung at 31.9%. The whole market should grow 16.3% to about 23.5 million units.
- Foldables are still only about 2% of all smartphones. Three years ago, the same analysts expected about 70 million foldables and a 5% share in 2027.
- My view: Apple will probably get there, but mostly because Android foldables are falling and the Apple brand sells. The first iPhone Duo is a beautiful $2,000 phone full of compromises. The real one is the second generation.
Market researcher TrendForce published a forecast on October 28 that Apple will hold 29.8% of the foldable phone market in 2027, up from 24.8% in 2026, when it should ship about 5 million iPhone Duo units. Samsung would stay first, falling from 35.1% to 31.9%, and Huawei would drop from 24.8% to 21.3%. TrendForce expects the whole foldable market to grow only 0.5% in 2026, with Android foldables down more than 20%, and then 16.3% to about 23.5 million units in 2027. Counterpoint went further in September and said Apple could reach up to 40% in 2027.
The iPhone Duo starts at $1,999, with a 7.6-inch inner and a 5.4-inch outer display, and a hinge made of more than 100 parts. It sold out quickly, and new orders now ship in January 2027. On launch day, Apple also published support documents for unexpected hinge noise, a loose hinge and a bent or broken hinge, as I wrote here.
| Foldable market share | 2026 | 2027 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 35.1% | 31.9% |
| Apple | 24.8% | 29.8% |
| Huawei | 24.8% | 21.3% |
| Whole foldable market | +0.5% | +16.3% (about 23.5 million units) |
In this article: Will it happen? Probably. And it means almost nothing · Weak competition, not a revolution · The brand wins, not the hinge · Beautiful, but $2,000 of compromises · The iPhone Air lesson · Generation two is the real phone · FAQ
Will it happen? Probably. And it means almost nothing
Will Apple get to 30%? Probably yes. But 30% of what? Foldables are about 2% of all phones sold in the world. If Apple sells five or six million iPhone Duos, it is enough to be a winner in this small market. That is not a revolution. That is a small corner of the market where a few million phones decide who is first.
And one more thing. Three years ago, the same TrendForce expected about 70 million foldables and a 5% share of the whole market in 2027. Now we are talking about 23.5 million. So forgive me if I do not take every percentage from analysts as a fact.
Weak competition, not a revolution
Why does Apple jump so fast? For me, it is not because the iPhone Duo is a revolution. It is because the competition is weak. Android foldables are falling by more than 20% this year. Samsung has six foldables and still loses share.
People want a real revolution. Not another presentation where we hear that the new model is x% faster than the last one. That does not work anymore. Nobody gets excited about that. And when nobody brings anything really new, Apple only has to come with something that looks new.
The brand wins, not the hinge
Apple has the brand, and that is its biggest weapon. Fans will buy it. In my opinion, many of them buy without common sense, just because there is an apple on the back. Samsung may even be technically better in some things, and it has years of experience with foldables.
To be fair, Apple really worked on the crease. On the first day you almost can’t see it, and that is what people want to see in the store. But the brand sells the phone, not the hinge.
Beautiful, but $2,000 of compromises
Next to the iPhone Duo, the competition looks a little weak, I admit that. But it is not “cheap and crappy”, as Ternus said. Samsung and Huawei have been making foldables for years, and their phones work.
The matte display is really good, credit for that. But the biggest problem is the hinge. More than 100 parts. Apple sells it as engineering art. The way I see it, more parts means more things that can go wrong. And I think that over time, the crease on the iPhone Duo will get uglier than on the competition, because the first generation of anything does not have years of testing behind it.
And then there are those support documents. On launch day, Apple already had instructions for what to do when the hinge makes noise, when it gets loose, or when it bends or breaks. For me, that says Apple expected the problems. And that is probably also why it was not ready for mass production and people now wait until January. That is my reading, Apple never said so. But who pays $2,000 for a phone and then is afraid every day that he will hear a crack? We already saw the first cracks, and Apple said it was “a small number”.
The iPhone Air lesson
Remember the iPhone Air? When it came out, everyone praised it. Thin, beautiful, an engineering wonder. And then it turned out that almost nobody bought it. Reports said Apple cut Air production soon after launch, and the Air 2 was pushed back after sluggish sales.
Praise does not mean sales. Many people said “wow”, and then they bought the normal iPhone. And Vision Pro? Also an engineering wow. But heavy and big, and people did not want to wear it on their heads. So when I hear that everyone praises the iPhone Duo, I am careful. Strong pre-orders are one thing. What people buy after a year is another.
Generation two is the real phone
I am not saying the iPhone Duo is bad. Cracks, missing spare parts and hinge problems are normal for a first generation. Apple is learning now: production, logistics, repairs. You pay $2,000 to be part of that test.
I think the second generation will be the real phone. Apple will fix the biggest bugs, and people who wait will get a better hinge and probably a better price. Apple also knew people would wait, that is why deliveries already reach into 2027.
So yes, Apple can take 30% of foldables. But 30% of almost nothing is still almost nothing. If you want an iPhone Duo, my advice is simple: wait for the second one.
Also on Evolt News: iPhone Duo fails the durability test · iPhone Duo sold out until 2027
Photo: Apple.
This article is opinion.
iPhone Duo market share: FAQ
What share of the foldable market will Apple have in 2027?
TrendForce forecasts 29.8% for Apple in 2027, up from 24.8% in 2026. Samsung would stay first with 31.9%, and Huawei would fall to 21.3%. Counterpoint has said Apple could reach up to 40%.
How big is the foldable phone market?
TrendForce expects about 23.5 million foldables in 2027, 16.3% more than in 2026. That is still only about 2% of all smartphones.
How many iPhone Duo units will Apple sell?
TrendForce expects about 5 million iPhone Duo shipments in 2026. Apple does not publish iPhone Duo sales numbers.
How much does the iPhone Duo cost?
The iPhone Duo starts at $1,999. New orders currently ship in January 2027.
Does the iPhone Duo have hinge problems?
On launch day, Apple published support documents for unexpected hinge noise, a loose hinge and a bent or broken hinge. Some users also reported cracks, and Apple said they affect a small number of devices.
Sources: TrendForce, Counterpoint, Apple, MacRumors, 9to5Mac, AppleInsider, Tom’s Guide.
Our Take
Apple will probably take close to 30% of foldables in 2027, but in a market that is only about 2% of all phones, and mostly because Android foldables are falling. The same analysts once promised a much bigger market.
The iPhone Duo is beautiful, but the hinge is the big question, and the iPhone Air showed that praise does not mean sales. If you want one, the second generation is the smarter buy.
