Key takeaways
- On SpaceX’s Q3 earnings call on October 20, Elon Musk said Tesla and SpaceX have each formed special committees of independent board members to explore a merger. Musk says he cannot take part, but he thinks it “would be a good idea.”
- SpaceX barely needs a shareholder vote because Musk controls more than half of its voting power. Tesla needs approval from 50% of all outstanding shares, and since September it offers retail investors an auto-vote that follows the board.
- My view: in my opinion, it is already decided. Musk does nothing just like that, and I think the vote will be a show where everyone knows the result in advance.
Tesla and SpaceX have taken the first formal step toward becoming one company. On SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings call on October 20, only its second report since going public, Elon Musk said both companies have formed special committees of independent board members to review a possible merger. Because he runs both, Musk says he is a conflicted party and cannot be in the discussions. He called it “an odd kabuki dance,” but when asked whether a merger would be a good idea, he answered: “Yes.”
He also tried to cool things down. Musk said it would be “overstating it” to call a deal certain, and he called Tesla’s approval threshold “quite a high hurdle.” No terms have been agreed. The numbers behind the story are wild: SpaceX reported $14.58 billion in quarterly revenue, up 161%, with about $4.4 billion in net income, and its AI business (the former xAI with Grok) brought in $7.56 billion, more than Starlink for the first time. Tesla, which recently signed a $30 billion credit line, had an operating margin of just 1.4% in Q2 and reports its Q3 results today after the market closes.
In this article: SpaceX is Musk’s company. He can do what he wants · Musk doesn’t talk this loudly by accident · The auto-vote button is for the fans · Tesla shares for SpaceX shares: a good deal? · December 3: a vote where everyone knows the result · Connected? We knew that a long time ago · FAQ
SpaceX is Musk’s company. He can do what he wants
We all see who the main shareholder of SpaceX with the biggest stake is: Musk. Before the IPO, he gave himself super-voting shares, so he controls more than half of the votes. So yes, SpaceX does not really need anyone’s approval. Musk can do what he wants there.
Tesla is a different story, and this is where his whole idea starts to fall apart. Tesla has many more shareholders, Musk owns only around 20% of it, and the merger needs a lot of votes: 50% of all outstanding shares, not just of the people who show up to vote.
| SpaceX | Tesla | |
|---|---|---|
| Market value (Oct 20 close) | about $2.0 trillion | about $1.48 trillion |
| Latest quarter | Q3: $14.58B revenue, ~$4.4B net income | Q2: 1.4% operating margin, negative free cash flow |
| Musk’s control | more than 50% of votes | around 20% |
| Merger approval | effectively Musk | 50% of all outstanding shares |
Musk doesn’t talk this loudly by accident
In my opinion, the merger will happen. When Musk talks about something this loudly and in public, we can almost say with certainty that it is a done deal.
And I have a feeling that if they are openly talking about merging Tesla with SpaceX, Musk has already talked in advance with most of the big shareholders who will back his merger. I can’t prove it, but that is how it looks to me.
Honestly, it quite surprises me that these two companies will merge into one. In my opinion, it is again some kind of game to push the stock up. And the market reacted exactly like that: SpaceX jumped about 8% after the call, Tesla less than 2%.
The auto-vote button is for the fans
At the end of September, Tesla introduced a feature that lets retail shareholders set their votes to automatically follow the board’s recommendations. Retail investors hold about 40% of Tesla’s freely traded shares, about double the usual level for big tech companies.
In my opinion, this feature is for Tesla and Musk fans. I think a big part of them has already turned it on, and Musk knows it. Maybe that is why he is so sure it will happen: people blindly believe every move he makes. I won’t even be surprised if it is predictable from the start.
Will it be good or bad? We will find out only after the merger, and then we will see whether it was worth trusting Musk this blindly, and whether people won’t regret it after some time.
Tesla shares for SpaceX shares: a good deal?
Barclays estimates that each Tesla share would be exchanged for roughly 0.7 shares of the combined company. So a Tesla shareholder would suddenly own a piece of SpaceX too, and in the end that may have good consequences.
But I don’t want to defend a merger when we don’t know what consequences it brings. According to the same Barclays math, Musk would own about 37% of the combined company but have about 56% of the voting rights. And Electrek points to a detail in Musk’s trillion-dollar pay package: in the case of a merger, his shares are delivered automatically, even if Tesla never reaches the milestones like a million robots or a million robotaxis.
That is the show again. Don’t forget, Musk does nothing just like that. He knows how to make the most money on all of us. I am skeptical about what Musk does and what he says, just like I was when he showed us a Roadster that flips but can’t drive on public roads.
December 3: a vote where everyone knows the result
Tesla’s annual meeting is on December 3. Officially, the merger is not on the ballot, so it would need a separate special meeting. But my prediction is this: one day we will simply get the fact that they merged. Maybe that will be the biggest surprise for everyone: the vote happened, and it is just a fact.
I don’t know how others will react, but something tells me the fact will just be out there. Maybe there won’t even be a meeting, or there will be one, but in a format where everyone knows the result in advance and everyone pretends it is an event.
Connected? We knew that a long time ago
Let’s not make some big news out of the fact that the companies are already connected. Tesla invested about $2 billion in xAI in January, xAI became part of SpaceX in February, and they work together on chips and AI. Everybody has known for a long time that they are connected.
We are talking about the same man who founded everything. It would be stranger if someone said they are not connected at all and that people are only now starting to talk about it.
Also on Evolt News: our Tesla Q3 2026 deliveries prediction · Tesla Roadster: a flip, not a car
Image: SpaceX.
This article is opinion.
Tesla and SpaceX merger: FAQ
Are Tesla and SpaceX merging?
Not yet. On October 20, 2026, Elon Musk said both companies formed special committees of independent board members to evaluate a merger. No terms have been agreed, and Musk said calling a deal certain would be overstating it.
Why can’t Elon Musk take part in the merger talks?
Musk is CEO of both Tesla and SpaceX, so he is a conflicted party. That is why each company formed a special committee of independent directors to review the deal.
What vote does a Tesla-SpaceX merger need?
Tesla would need approval from holders of 50% of all outstanding shares, not just the votes cast. SpaceX is effectively controlled by Musk, who holds more than half of its voting power.
What is Tesla’s auto-vote feature?
Since late September 2026, Tesla lets retail shareholders set standing instructions so their shares automatically vote with the board’s recommendations. They can change their votes at any time.
How would Tesla shareholders be paid in a merger?
Terms are not set. Barclays estimated each Tesla share could convert into roughly 0.7 shares of the combined company, with Musk holding about 37% of the shares and about 56% of the voting rights.
How did SpaceX do in Q3 2026?
SpaceX reported $14.58 billion in revenue, up 161% year over year, and about $4.4 billion in net income. Its AI segment brought in $7.56 billion, its largest source of revenue for the first time.
Sources: SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call, Electrek, Teslarati, Axios, 24/7 Wall St., Barclays via Geo.tv, Bloomberg Intelligence via Parameter.
Our Take
In my opinion, the Tesla and SpaceX merger is already decided. Musk does not talk this loudly by accident, and the auto-vote button for retail fans makes the result predictable.
Whether it will be good or bad, we will only find out after the merger. But don’t forget: Musk does nothing just like that.
