Key takeaways
- Bloomberg reports SpaceX and Tesla could announce a merger as soon as December, the largest deal ever, with SpaceX absorbing Tesla.
- Musk owns about 20% of Tesla but controlled roughly 85% of SpaceX’s voting power, and a change of control would make parts of his Tesla pay vest right away.
- My view: this is not a merger, it’s a lifeboat. Tesla’s car business is sinking, and Musk is moving everything into the company where nobody can outvote him.
SpaceX and Tesla could announce a merger as soon as December, according to Bloomberg, a deal that would value Tesla at about $1.5 trillion and make it the largest in history. Talks are now about price and control, and SpaceX, worth over $1.9 trillion after its June IPO, would absorb Tesla, not the other way around.
In this article: A lifeboat, not a merger · Your vote disappears · Musk gets paid either way · Why the rush now · FAQ
A lifeboat, not a merger
I wrote it after Tesla’s 66% sales crash in China: all those growth headlines are there so investors don’t run from a sinking ship. Now we have the answer. They won’t have to run. Musk will simply move them onto another ship.
Look at what Tesla is today. The Cybertruck is ending, kept alive only until summer 2027. The Roadster is a show we’re still waiting for. Real sales come down to two old models. And this company is supposed to be worth $1.5 trillion? Inside SpaceX, nobody will ever have to answer that question again.
Your vote disappears
Today, Musk owns about 20% of Tesla. At SpaceX, his super-voting shares gave him roughly 85% of the votes. Swap one for the other, and every Tesla shareholder trades a real vote for a ticket to watch.
And who decides? Tesla’s “independent” committee. Ira Ehrenpreis, who chairs Tesla’s compensation and governance committees, has sat on SpaceX’s board since February. Independent, from whom exactly?
Musk gets paid either way
Under his 2025 CEO award, a change of control makes the operational milestones drop out, and earned shares vest immediately. His 286 million restricted shares from 2018 accelerate too. In my opinion, that says everything about who this deal is really for.
SolarCity, Twitter, xAI and now Tesla. Every time a company of his can’t stand on its own, it gets folded into another one. When the music stops, the losses are buried somewhere nobody can see them.
Why the rush now
Democrats take control of Congress in January, and they have already said Musk’s companies will get a hard look. Bloomberg reported the companies want to close before Trump leaves office. So the hurry is not about rockets or cars. It’s about getting it done before anyone starts asking questions.
I said Musk would face payback after the New Year. To me, this looks like a man who knows it too, and wants the doors locked before it comes.
Also on Evolt News: Grok Bot now reads your Mac · Tesla’s China sales crash 66% · Cybertruck extended to summer 2027 · Porsche’s CEO calls Tesla a show
Featured image: SpaceX’s Starbase launch tower with a Super Heavy booster. Photo: Jenny Hautmann / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0).
This article is opinion.
SpaceX and Tesla merger: FAQ
When could the SpaceX Tesla merger be announced?
Bloomberg reports a deal could be announced as soon as December 2026, with early 2027 also possible.
How much is Tesla worth in the deal?
Tesla trades at around $1.5 trillion. SpaceX is valued at over $1.9 trillion after its June IPO.
Would it be the biggest merger ever?
Yes. The record has long been Vodafone’s $183 billion takeover of Mannesmann in 2000.
Who would control the merged company?
SpaceX would absorb Tesla. Musk controlled roughly 85% of SpaceX’s voting power, compared with about 20% ownership of Tesla.
What happens to Musk’s Tesla pay?
Under his 2025 award, a change of control drops the operational milestones and vests earned shares immediately. His 2018 restricted shares also accelerate.
What is the biggest obstacle?
Tesla’s China business. Giga Shanghai builds more than half of Tesla’s cars, while SpaceX does defense and government work.
Sources: Bloomberg, Electrek, Tesla, SpaceX, JPMorgan.
Our Take
A merger that moves Tesla into a company Musk fully controls, pays him on the way in and closes before Congress changes hands is not about the future of cars. It’s about the future of Musk.
Tesla shareholders will vote on December 3. In my view, it may be the last vote that really counts.
