JP Morgan Raises Apple Price Target to $360. In My Opinion, Be Careful What You Believe

Last week, Nikkei Asia wrote that Apple cut iPhone 18 Pro component orders because of “soft demand”, and Apple’s stock fell about 2.5%. Now, as reported by AppleInsider and 9to5Mac, JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee says the opposite. He raised his Apple price target from $340 to $360, kept his Overweight rating, and called the cuts Apple’s normal yearly production adjustments. According to JP Morgan, demand for the iPhone 18 Pro is even slightly higher so far than for the 17 Pro.

For the December quarter, JP Morgan expects 8.5 million iPhone Duo sales, about 69 million iPhones in total, 18% fewer than a year ago, and average iPhone prices about 20% higher. iPhone revenue down about 2%, but Apple’s total revenue up about 2%.

In this article: “Soft demand” one week, no crisis the next · 18% fewer iPhones, 20% higher prices: a trap? · 8.5 million iPhone Duos? No, and yes · Do I trust bank price targets? No · The CEO change: too early to judge · SpaceX as a mobile carrier: let us not panic · Would I buy Apple stock now? I already do · Who wins and who loses on a 2.5% drop · Where is the price limit? The Duo will tell us · Is Apple’s success only numbers now? I disagree · FAQ

“Soft demand” one week, no crisis the next

Here I can only say: if investors are already making theater, at least they should do it with reason. I am a bit skeptical about JP Morgan and how everyone is now pushing Apple stock up with news and speculation.

One question stays open: where did the news come from, a few days ago, that Apple cut parts for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max by 15 to 20%? Small investors heard it and went to sell right away. And the big players and speculators made money on it.

To be clear: the report was real. Nikkei Asia published it, citing “multiple people familiar with the matter” in the supply chain. But those are anonymous sources, and nobody knows who gave Nikkei the information or why. A supplier, an investor, a competitor? And it was only half of the picture: Securities Times later reported that Apple cut iPhone 18 Pro orders but raised Pro Max orders by the same amount, so the total did not change. Once a story like that is out, other sites and speculators add dozens of “reasons” and build a scenario that looks very realistic, even if it stands on one incomplete piece of information.

So from now on, we have to be careful. Wait until something is officially confirmed. Ask yourself: is this official, or did somebody just write it to move Apple’s market with a few PR articles? I wrote about the same in the iPhone record market share article.

18% fewer iPhones, 20% higher prices: a trap?

Right now, JP Morgan only reacts to the numbers Apple itself gave. So we have to be reasonable and say: what they said are just numbers, and they are right.

But in my opinion, it is a trap for the future. That is only my opinion, take it with reserve. I think it is only a matter of time before high prices slow down the whole gadget market, not only Apple. But honestly, I want to be wrong here. I hope Apple will not have a problem and can keep making super things.

8.5 million iPhone Duos? No, and yes

With the Duo, it is very exciting right now. I am quite skeptical about the numbers on the market, but only because we did not know much about such a big new machine as the Duo. And at the same time, the phone is really beautiful.

8.5 million is, for me, exaggerated, or a bet from Apple, or again some speculation. But it fascinates me to watch how the Duo and Cupertino will do. Will it be a success or a fail? I really follow everything about new models, and I wrote about the iPhone Duo orders yesterday.

Do I trust bank price targets? No

History shows I should not trust banks on this at all. Last year they guessed out of thin air how many Teslas would sell, and they were completely off. I wrote about it in my Tesla Q3 deliveries results article. In my opinion, banks move prices in their own favor. With Tesla, it worked for them. But I think with Apple they do not have that much power. It is a completely different segment.

And we still do not know the real numbers for the Duo. Will Apple’s stock stay this high, or fall back to $340? We will see. It is exciting.

The CEO change: too early to judge

JP Morgan lists Apple’s CEO change as a risk. In my opinion, saying it is happening “right now” is not relevant. If not now, then in a year, two, three. And even if Tim Cook had stayed longer, we would ask the same question in a few years.

The new boss is, in my opinion, a bit too self-confident. Or maybe that is how it should be at a company like Apple. Tim Cook impressed me more as CEO. But my opinion can change with time. It is too early to say if he is a genius, or if it is good or bad.

And “right now”, when the iPhone 18 Pro has problems? It turned out there is no problem at all, and they sell perfectly. I would say it had an excellent start.

SpaceX as a mobile carrier: let us not panic

Bank of America warns that SpaceX bought low-band spectrum and could become a mobile carrier. If 10% of customers of the big US carriers moved to SpaceX, Apple could lose about 5 million phones, roughly $6 billion, though the bank expects the real impact only in fiscal 2028 or later.

When it comes to Musk, I just hope it is not true. He buys half the world, and in my opinion behaves arrogantly. But I think Apple will not let itself lose that much because of Musk. They will surely agree on something. It would still only be a mobile carrier, and that is not a fact yet. It is too early to talk about it. We know many of Musk’s big ideas stay only ideas. So I would tell the banks to be a bit more precise, not just release fears about why Apple’s stock could lose value.

Would I buy Apple stock now? I already do

I buy Apple stock for my portfolio regularly. It is one of the strongest companies. I bought shares at $130, at $150 and so on, and I have never sold any of them. Even when the market drops, I rather buy more. I do not believe much in speculation.

But that is only what I believe. It is not advice for you. Do your own research.

Who wins and who loses on a 2.5% drop

The ones who lost were those who bought higher and sold lower, because there was panic and they said: better sell before it is too late. The ones who won bought during the panic. The whole stock market is built on that.

Where is the price limit? The Duo will tell us

That is exactly what we will learn with the Duo: which model sells best, the basic one or the one with the most expensive configuration. For me, it is so exciting to watch all this.

We will learn if people are able to pay such a big price for a phone, or if it is only PR from Apple and other investors who believe them and wait for a bigger miracle than Apple has done until now. We will see in a few weeks or months, when the numbers are out. I am terribly curious, in a good way.

Is Apple’s success only numbers now? I disagree

I do not agree that only banks and investors talk about Apple’s success. When the whole phone market drops, and Apple has success in the financial numbers, we take it as a victory. For now. Then we will see what comes next. Right now, I would be very careful about predicting the future.

Featured photo: Daniel L. Lu (dllu), CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Disclosure: the author owns Apple shares. This article is opinion, not investment advice.

JP Morgan Apple $360: FAQ

What is JP Morgan’s Apple price target?

JP Morgan raised its Apple price target from $340 to $360 and kept an Overweight rating. Bank of America has a Buy rating with a $370 target.

Did Apple cut iPhone 18 Pro production?

Nikkei Asia reported cuts because of soft demand. JP Morgan says the cuts are Apple’s normal yearly production adjustments and that iPhone 18 Pro demand is slightly higher so far than for the 17 Pro.

How many iPhone Duo units will Apple sell?

JP Morgan expects about 8.5 million iPhone Duo sales in the December quarter.

Will Apple sell fewer iPhones this holiday quarter?

JP Morgan expects about 69 million iPhones, 18% fewer than a year ago, with average prices about 20% higher. It expects iPhone revenue down about 2% and total Apple revenue up about 2%.

Why could SpaceX be a risk for Apple?

Bank of America says SpaceX’s spectrum deal could let it become a mobile carrier. If 10% of big US carrier subscribers switched, Apple could lose about 5 million units, with impact expected in fiscal 2028 or later.

Sources: AppleInsider, 9to5Mac, Benzinga, Nikkei Asia.

Our Take

JP Morgan says there is no iPhone crisis and raises its target to $360. Maybe. But one week of “soft demand” and the next of no crisis teaches one thing: wait for official numbers.

18% fewer iPhones at 20% higher prices works today. In my opinion, it is a trap for tomorrow.

The iPhone Duo will show where the price limit really is. I am watching, and I am curious.