Key takeaways
- Counterpoint Research: iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max sales rose only 3.1% globally in the first three weeks versus the iPhone 17 Pro. China jumped 29%, the US fell 4% and Japan fell 27%.
- Apple raised US starting prices by $100, to $1,199 for the Pro and $1,299 for the Pro Max. Counterpoint says US buyers see too few changes in features and design.
- My view: without China this would be almost nothing. People don’t see a reason to pay more for almost the same phone, and the iPhone Duo will not change that.
According to Counterpoint Research, global sales of the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max rose 3.1% in their first three weeks compared with the same period for the iPhone 17 Pro. China did the heavy lifting with a 29% increase, while US sales fell 4% and Japan fell 27%.
Counterpoint said China’s growth came from better initial supply and higher prices of competing Android flagships. In the US, buyers saw “insufficient changes” in features and design, despite the new variable aperture camera. Apple raised US starting prices by $100, to $1,199 for the iPhone 18 Pro and $1,299 for the Pro Max, and in Japan a weak yen made the increase even bigger.
Counterpoint’s Sujeong Lim said that whether China’s outperformance reflects durable demand or front-loaded buying will become clearer in the coming weeks. The data was collected before the iPhone Duo launched on October 23. Apple reports its quarterly results on November 2, the first under CEO John Ternus.
In this article: And here we are · China: real demand or full warehouses? · Did the price hike pay off for Ternus? · Why buy an iPhone 18 Pro? · The phone stagnation is already here · “People are waiting for the Duo”? The numbers say otherwise · Who pays $2,000 for a first generation? · FAQ
And here we are
So here we are. According to analysts, the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are already starting to fall. Maybe soon we will see that Apple at least lowers prices a little, if the trend continues and sales keep falling.
And let’s not forget that the main engine at the start was China.
| Market | iPhone 18 Pro series vs 17 Pro (first 3 weeks) |
|---|---|
| Global | +3.1% |
| China | +29% |
| United States | −4% |
| Japan | −27% |
| Pro Max share of Pro sales | 57% → 56% |
China: real demand or full warehouses?
But we don’t know exactly why. Is it because Apple had more units in stock than last year? A lot of people say that this year Apple put more units in its warehouses than for the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max launch.
If we find out that China has such a big percentage only because of more units in stock, it means only one thing for Apple: sales fell there too, like the whole market. And then we can no longer say that it’s only a problem of Android smartphones.
Did the price hike pay off for Ternus?
Now we wait for what John Ternus will publish for the first time on November 2. Did raising prices pay off for him, so that they have more margin even if they sell fewer units? Or is this a drop?
As the analysts write, Japan has a huge drop, and in the US, which was always the engine, people are not buying that much anymore.
Why buy an iPhone 18 Pro?
But to be honest, I see it like this: why should people buy a new iPhone 18 Pro? Yes, there is the A20 Pro chip, a smaller Dynamic Island and a better battery. But for a normal person, the changes are so small that he barely notices them. And the variable aperture on the camera didn’t help them much. Nobody really wants to pay $100 more for that.
This year the update was that minor. For years, Apple always changed something so last year’s cases wouldn’t fit. This year, your iPhone 17 Pro case fits the iPhone 18 Pro. Apple itself says it’s not compatible, because the camera plateau is 0.1 mm thicker. One tenth of a millimeter. That’s the upgrade.
And all that while Apple keeps an 85% margin on storage upgrades and blames memory prices for everything.
The phone stagnation is already here
We will see it properly for the first time in a few years: the stagnation of phones is already here. We don’t know exactly why. Do people no longer see innovation and the need to change their phone every year? Or is it the high prices we have everywhere on the market now? And on top of that, Apple gave itself the biggest margin of them all, the way I see it.
We will learn the most in some time, when the next sales numbers come. In my opinion, right now it’s too early, because it’s still a short time since the iPhone 18 Pro went on sale.
“People are waiting for the Duo”? The numbers say otherwise
People everywhere write that buyers are waiting for the iPhone Duo. That is not very believable. According to Mark Gurman, Apple’s initial iPhone Duo order is about 8 million units, and it even reaches into 2027. Other reports talk about 10 million, or parts for 14 million over the next 12 months. Only a few million phones a year.
That shows rather that people don’t follow the numbers and don’t know exactly what they are talking about. Even if the iPhone Duo sells 20 million a year and the Pro and Pro Max fall, it only means that high prices without innovation don’t work so well for Apple anymore.
And that people keep raving that everyone is waiting for the Duo is only speculation. People say it because they want it to be true, not because it is true. The numbers show rather the opposite.
Who pays $2,000 for a first generation?
You know why I think so? A lot of people are not ready to give $2,000 for a phone, and at the same time for a first generation. On the internet there is more hate for it, as just a stylish, overpriced gadget, and its screens are cracking. I think it doesn’t make sense.
Surely there will be people who buy it. But when you spread it over all of Apple’s phones, that percentage will be the smallest, as I see it.
Also on Evolt News: iPhone Duo and 30% of the foldable market · Apple’s memory suppliers strike back
Photo: iPhone 18 Pro color lineup. Apple.
This article is opinion.
iPhone 18 Pro sales: FAQ
How are iPhone 18 Pro sales doing?
According to Counterpoint Research, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max sales rose 3.1% globally in the first three weeks compared with the iPhone 17 Pro series. China grew 29%, the US fell 4% and Japan fell 27%.
How much does the iPhone 18 Pro cost?
In the US, the iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199 and the iPhone 18 Pro Max at $1,299, $100 more than the previous generation.
What is new in the iPhone 18 Pro?
The iPhone 18 Pro has the A20 Pro chip, a variable aperture main camera, a smaller Dynamic Island and, according to Apple, its best iPhone battery life. The design is nearly identical to the iPhone 17 Pro.
Do iPhone 17 Pro cases fit the iPhone 18 Pro?
Apple says they are not compatible because the camera plateau is slightly thicker (about 11.5 mm vs 11.4 mm). In practice, John Gruber found that cases from either generation fit, and most cases should work.
How many iPhone Duo units will Apple make?
Mark Gurman reported an initial order of about 8 million units that extends into 2027. Other reports mention 10 million, or component orders for 14 million over 12 months.
Sources: Counterpoint Research, Reuters, MacRumors, AppleInsider, Bloomberg (Mark Gurman), DigiTimes, Daring Fireball.
Our Take
Without China, the iPhone 18 Pro launch would be almost flat. The US and Japan are saying something Apple doesn’t want to hear: a higher price for almost the same phone doesn’t work.
And the iPhone Duo is not the rescue. A few million expensive foldables won’t change the numbers of the iPhone that matters.
