Apple Gears Up for Strong iPhone 18 Sales. In My Opinion, the Base Model Will Beat the Pro

As 9to5Mac and AppleInsider reported, leaker Fixed Focus Digital wrote on Weibo that the standard iPhone 18 will enter mass production at the end of November, and that inventory levels are “quite substantial.” In other words: Apple may be expecting strong demand.

This year, Apple split the launch. The iPhone Duo, iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max came in the fall. The base iPhone 18, the iPhone 18e and the iPhone Air 2 are expected in spring 2027.

In this article: Why Apple split the launch · “Pro sells more at Christmas”? I do not believe it · One leaker is not a fact · $899 for a base iPhone · 9GB or 12GB of RAM? · A worse display to save money? · Too many iPhones? · Is the memory shortage real? · iPhone 18 or Air 2? · As an Apple shareholder · My prediction: 90% a hit · FAQ

Why Apple split the launch

Reports say the memory shortage was one reason: Apple wanted enough supply for the Pro models and the iPhone Duo. The Duo is also harder to produce, so the factories needed some breathing space.

In my opinion, Apple knew something else too. If they had launched the base model together with the Pro again, like last year, the Pro sales would suffer. That is why they waited.

“Pro sells more at Christmas”? I do not believe it

AppleInsider writes that base models usually sell less than Pro models through the holidays, and then lead from around February.

I do not believe the first part. What do you think, all of you who write that only Pro is good? Last year showed it: the iPhone 17 was, and still is, excellent. And with this delay, I think more and more people will go for the normal, classic iPhone. I think exactly that model will become number one, not the Pro models.

One leaker is not a fact

9to5Mac itself warns that supply-chain orders are not a reliable indicator of production volumes, and that the leaker may see only one supplier. The leaker has a mixed track record, but was right that the iPhone Duo was not delayed.

I will not trust too much speculation from one anonymous source or one channel. I take this as speculation again. The direction of big companies has changed quite a lot: in my opinion, they now make more show and release more rumors than truth.

$899 for a base iPhone

The base iPhone 18 is expected to cost at least $899, the current price of the iPhone 17 after Apple’s price increases. The iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199, and the Pro Max at $1,299. I am not even talking about the Duo.

Well, we have to get used to it. Prices will probably never be what they were. But it is still better than paying for a Pro. So yes, $900 for a phone. And we know that the classic iPhones of the last years are good. The difference may be just the battery and the camera.

On MacRumors, one reader called the non-Pro iPhone “budget trash.” I am curious: what is the real difference between Pro and the classic? I choose a phone by how it works, and the classic iPhone 17 works perfectly. I am sure the 18 will be the same. In my opinion, people who write like that just think very highly of themselves.

9GB or 12GB of RAM?

Analysts disagree: Ming-Chi Kuo expects 9GB, Jeff Pu expects 12GB. With 9GB, the phone would likely miss two on-device Apple Intelligence features that need 12GB.

That would be really useless, and I do not believe they will do it. Even HomeView, which I called a flop in my HomeView article, gets Siri AI. Not giving it fully to the iPhone 18 would be bad.

But at the same time, Siri is so dumb right now that Siri AI is more marketing than anything else. So for me it does not really matter. I download ChatGPT or Claude, and I have great AI. Not Siri AI.

A worse display to save money?

Some reports say Apple may lower the brightness or otherwise downgrade the display, and may use an A20 with a 4-core GPU instead of 5 cores.

If they start saving on the display at $900, I can say with certainty: Apple is not what it was. They really want only margins, and they do not care where they save. The chip is not fair either. But I think this is just rumor, and I hope they do not do it. We will see.

Too many iPhones?

iPhone 18, 18e, Air 2, 18 Pro, Pro Max, Duo. On MacRumors, many readers want a simpler lineup: “Too many models with not enough differentiators.”

Here it is bad and good. Bad, because it is really too many models. We were used to Pro and classic, and now suddenly e, Air, classic, Pro. Maybe that is too much. But at the same time, they give us a choice, who likes what, and who needs what phone for what. People who think there are too many models are a few voices. Not everyone thinks like that, and not everyone buys the same models as they think. So that opinion is quite wrong.

Is the memory shortage real?

When so many people talk about it, maybe it is true, and maybe it is the reason. I wrote about it in my iPhone market share and memory crisis article. But I think Apple could solve the problem somehow, and not always blame memory, even if memory is expensive. And if they also put in a worse display, what does that mean? In my opinion, it shows they want to make as much as possible.

iPhone 18 or Air 2?

You know my opinion: I want the Air. But now we have to wait and see what they show. I love the form factor of the iPhone Air. But someone prefers the classic, so it is individual.

As an Apple shareholder

I own Apple shares myself. I am happy when the stock grows on rumors like this. But I know well that we are probably entering a period of speculation and leaks about the iPhone 18 until Apple shows it. Now there will be a lot of speculation about the Air and the classic, so we have to be careful about what we believe.

My prediction: 90% a hit

It will definitely not be overshadowed by the Air. I think it is 90% a hit. That is not speculation, it is my opinion, and mostly because of the price. I think it will be the best iPhone for price and performance. People would rather pay $900 than $1,199 for a Pro or $1,299 for a Pro Max.

Featured photo: Premeditated, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Disclosure: the author owns Apple shares. This article is opinion, not investment advice.

iPhone 18: FAQ

When is the base iPhone 18 coming out?

Apple split its 2026 lineup. The iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max and iPhone Duo launched in the fall. The base iPhone 18, iPhone 18e and iPhone Air 2 are expected in spring 2027.

Is Apple expecting strong iPhone 18 sales?

Leaker Fixed Focus Digital says production starts at the end of November with large inventory levels. 9to5Mac notes that supply-chain orders are not a reliable indicator of volumes.

How much will the iPhone 18 cost?

Apple has not announced it. It is expected to cost at least $899, the price of the iPhone 17 after Apple’s increases. The iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199 and the Pro Max at $1,299.

How much RAM will the iPhone 18 have?

Rumors disagree: Ming-Chi Kuo expects 9GB, Jeff Pu expects 12GB. With 9GB, two on-device Apple Intelligence features that need 12GB would likely be missing.

Why did Apple delay the base iPhone 18?

Reports point to the memory shortage and the more complex production of the iPhone Duo.

Sources: 9to5Mac, AppleInsider, MacRumors, Fixed Focus Digital (Weibo).

Our Take

One anonymous leaker is not a fact, and the next months will be full of rumors.

But in my opinion, the base iPhone 18 will be the hit of spring 2027, because the classic iPhone is excellent and the price makes sense next to a $1,199 Pro.

Apple, just do not save on the display. Not at $900.